GFS Hints at Snow on Thanksgiving...

The GFS is one of many computer forecasting tools used by meteorologists to predict our weather (there's also the NFS, NOGAPS, the EURO, etc...). This particular model is pointing to a possible snow event for the Philly area (or possibly just south - like in Delaware) on or around Thanksgiving.

This far out, there are a lot of things that can change, so I wouldn't hold my breath. In fact its very hard for our area to get snow before Thanksgiving, and its even harder to get that snow to actually accumulate. We have a warm ground temperature, the ocean is still warm, and the atmospheric dynamics are not yet in the "winter mode".

But if you look at the map above, you can clearly see a precipitation shield that just barely gets into the Delaware area. The northern edge of storms is always the coldest, and in these situtations you are looking at a flurry or light snowfall (not a big one). Nevertheless, its fun to take the bait and start hoping.

Remember, there was a two-inch snowfall on October 10th in the early 1970s in the Delaware valley, and there have been several years when we've had snow on the ground in November, especially late November. I remember going to the tree farm to harvest a Christmas tree right after Thanksgiving last year and there was snow on the ground then.

As the winter approaches, I'll post anything I hear about possible snowfall as far out as possible. This one has a very small chance of actually coming to fruition, but if it does, you can say you heard it here first.

Snowfall, one of the things that prevents me from shooting stuff.

by File Boy