Winter 2006-2007 Long Range Forecasts
Several meteorological outlets have released their long range predictions for this upcoming winter. According to Accuweather, (Accuweather 2006-2007 forecast) if you live in the middle atlantic say, you should expect a colder than average winter with more precipitation. This forecast was prepared by Joe Bastardi, who is well-known for his eagerness to make big predictions, seasons ahead. If you take this forecast literally, you should expect a snowy winter here.
NOAA has also released their long range winter 2006-2007 forecast (NOAA Long Range Outlook ) for the country. Their outlook indicates that the middle atlantic will be warmer than normal, with equal chances of more precipitation and less precipitation. Way to go out on a limb guys. But, taken literally, that means a warmer winter for our area.
So who's right? The problem with long range predictions is that it is not possible to make reliable predictions beyond 5, maybe 6 days in advance. A prediction for an entire season is akin to witchcraftic soothsaying, and mostly a way for forecasters to increase ratings. If you hear that a particular news outlet will be airing their "winter forecast", you tune in to see what they'll have to say. And, if you're like me, you pay more attention to the outlets predicting more snow. The same is true of individual storm predictions. When Hurricane Schwartz says we're going to get 10 inches, but Rob Guarino predicts 12, you quote Rob to your friends ("I hear we're going to get a foot of snow tonight!").
I hope that Accuweather is correct and that we have a snowy winter. I enjoy the snow, and oftentimes parlay a snowfall into a day off. "Yeah, I'm looking out the window right now and the snow is drifting over 3 inches in some areas of my driveway. I just don't think its a good idea to try to make the drive in today, boss". Then I take my 4-wheel drive truck out onto the roads for all of the things I'll need to enjoy my day off. Let's see, case of beer, pizza, ooh and I need to go to the post office to mail this bill, and I'd better stop over at my friend's house, just to make sure they're ok...
Fox29 is going to be airing their long range forecast on November 6th. I hope Rob G. doesn't let us down. C'mon snowy winter!
by File Boy
posted by File Boy & D.Tkon at 9:25 AM
8 Comments:
I wonder what their long range predictions are for their employment? Are we forcasting a stable income stream or drought?
"...akin to witchcraft soothsaying..." They make the predictions based on teleconnections and pressure patterns and other meteorological instruments of measure. It's a science. And they're right most of the time.
There was a time I lived in a much snowier climate and I complained and whined about it. Now, I look forward to the quiet nights that winter brings... maybe some quiet music... maybe a few candles lit... maybe a glass (bottle) of wine... And I also look forward to playing in it. I hope it snows and snows and snows and snows...
sidenote: just found it and loving your blog!
Addgirl, I agree there is a science to predicting the weather, however, long range predictions are a different matter. They do take into consideration the El Nino (la nina), the ENSO, etc...however, what those indicate is a probability or liklihood of divergence from normal. So for example, if you live in PA and those long range predictions say your winter will average 1 degree warmer than normal, they may be right. However, let's say you get one cold spell in January, and during that one cold spell you get hit with a Nor'Easter, and get 30 inches of snow, that prediction doesn't reflect what the winter was really like. See? Its witchcraftic soothsaying. Glad you like the site. We love you.
Hell! We just love not being Anonymous!!!
Who's not anonymous? I didn't get that.
Well, until S'Girl and Addgirl came along, we were just talking to ourselves dude. Now that we have 2 fans (even though they're chicks) we're not Anonymous anymore. Do I need to use smaller words and type slower?
What I've always wanted... a blog about weather. No... Don't get me wrong, I agree with Addgirl, I too just found this site and am finding it ever so enjoyable. And who doesn't love a good snowfall? You get a chance to just relax, maybe have a fire in the woodstove, of course a bottle of wine is always nice. It deadens the pain when you've been outside all night sledding. My most wonderful memory about sledding was when we made a "sled" out of a wooden for sale sign, drilled a hole in it, threaded bristly rope through the hole, attached the other end to the tractor (think John Deere, you know ones that actually plow fields and fields of crops) and just held on. If I remember correctly, I was never able to really get going and the tractor got stuck in the side yard for months. Ahhh... the joys of living on the farm!
Scott-tay with the hot sauce, your memory of sledding on the farm was great! I almost felt like I was there with you. I think you can tell if someone is a happy person or too jaded by whether they like snow or not. If you don't like snow, you've lost your inner child.
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